This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Taiwan, in partnership with the United States, lays a new classified or military-backed undersea cable linking Taiwan to a U.S. military base in the Pacific before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official defense and intelligence reports, leaks from defense contractors, or high-level military disclosures, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that NASA or another major space agency detects an unexpected trajectory shift for asteroid 2024 YR4, altering its future projected path before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be NASA’s planetary defense blog, statements from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), or official astronomical reports, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Justin Bieber officially joins an NHL team for a preseason exhibition game before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NHL team announcements, verified sports media, or Bieber’s own statements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a major Hollywood studio or streaming platform officially announces a new movie or series about Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos before the Event Date Close. This Prediction has two Parts and both parts of the Event Outcome must Settle to "Yes" for the Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes". Part A: Ms. Elizabeth Holmes must have received a Presidential Pardon and be released from Prison. Part B: Ms. Elizabeth Holmes is Featured in a New Hollywood Biopic or Netflix or any Streaming Series If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official studio press releases, trade publications, or streaming service announcements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Justin Bieber releases a surprise album in 2025 featuring a collaboration with another major artist before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official music industry announcements, streaming platform releases, or statements from Bieber’s representatives, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield falls below 4% as a direct or indirect result of DOGE’s spending cuts before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be market data as reported, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on the Yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elizabeth Holmes is granted a presidential pardon by the U.S. president before December 31, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the White House or Justice Department, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Elizabeth Holmes secures a book deal or signs an agreement with a publisher or Netflix for a memoir or tell-all book or series, while still serving her prison sentence before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official publisher announcements, media interviews, or Holmes’ representatives, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Donald Trump is awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize before the official Nobel announcement date on October 11, 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from the Nobel Prize Committee, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives formally introduces a budget provision or bill that seeks to cut $500 million from NYC infrastructure funding as retaliation for congestion pricing before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official congressional records or legislative announcements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the World Health Organization (WHO) issues an official pandemic warning or categorizes HKU5-CoV-2 as a global health emergency before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official WHO statements or global health organization reports, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the Associated Press wins a legal challenge against the White House, leading to the restoration of full access to press briefings and events before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official court rulings or statements from the Associated Press, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that a Tu-95MS bomber develops a fuel leak mid-flight and is forced to return to base before completing its bomber run near Ukraine before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official Russian military reports or international defense monitoring agencies, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the U.S. government, under the Trump administration, officially bans Nvidia from selling AI chips to China before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official U.S. government announcements, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Nvidia develops or announces a new AI chip tailored to comply with U.S. export restrictions while still being marketable to China before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Nvidia, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Madonna and Akeem Morris attend a red carpet event together and pose for official photographs before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be major entertainment news outlets, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources may also be used. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Sam Bankman-Fried or his legal team has a direct meeting with a Trump administration official, advisor, or intermediary. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be government records, investigative journalism reports, or a consensus of credible political and legal reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Political Influence Effort.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Robinhood reports a cryptocurrency theft or security breach resulting in losses exceeding $100 million before the Event Date Close. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official statements from Robinhood, regulatory filings, or a consensus of credible reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Cryptocurrency Security Breach.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that Boeing completes the sale of its Insitu drone unit to one of the listed suitors before the end of 2025. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official financial disclosures from Boeing, Insitu’s new owner, or a consensus of credible business reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on an Announcement from a credible reporting source.
This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that the NBA implements a rule change aimed at reducing the frequency of three-point attempts before the end of the 2026-27 season. If it becomes impossible for this Event Outcome to Settle to "Yes", the Event Outcome may Settle immediately to "No". The primary source for this Event Outcome will be official NBA rule changes, NBA commissioner announcements, or a consensus of credible reporting sources. The Event Outcome is a Prediction on a Sports League Rule Change from a credible reporting source.