Will Tether's RGB-USDT on Bitcoin go live in July 2026?
37,890 Vol.in 20 days (Jul-31-2026 11:59:00 PM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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Live Mainnet Issuance
$27,115 Vol.
55.0%
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Major Exchange Integration
$10,775 Vol.
8.0%
DescriptionTether and UTEXO announced on July 7, 2026 plans to natively issue USDT on Bitcoin via RGB protocol v0.11.1 — the first return to Bitcoin's layer 1 since 2017. UTEXO has built APIs, SDKs, a live mint bridge at mint.utexo.com, and Lightning cloud infrastructure. The launch is described as expected within weeks. Currently ~85-92% of USDT supply lives on Ethereum and Tron.
- This event resolves based on confirmed official actions on or before July 31, 2026 UTC.
- 1. Specificity: 'Live Mainnet Issuance' resolves YES if Tether or UTEXO officially confirms RGB-USDT issuance is live on Bitcoin mainnet (not just planned). 'Major Exchange Integration' resolves YES if at least one major exchange (Kraken, Binance, KuCoin, Coinbase, OKX, or Bitfinex) officially announces AND implements RGB-USDT deposits/withdrawals.
- 2. Exclusion: Announcements of planned/upcoming launches do NOT resolve YES. Testnet or beta-only does NOT count.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Tether official blog/Twitter primary. UTEXO official channels secondary. Bitcoin Magazine, CoinDesk, Cryptopolitan tertiary.
- 4. Timing: All outcomes must occur before July 31, 2026 UTC. Post-deadline resolves NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: YES requires both announcement AND implementation before deadline. Announcement alone without live system resolves NO.