Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 permissionless prediction markets go live on testnet by Aug 18, 2026?
33,621 Vol.in 28 days (Aug-18-2026 11:59:00 PM UTC)
DescriptionOn July 20, 2026, Hyperliquid announced that its HIP-4 "outcome markets" (on-chain prediction markets) will open to third-party deployers, gated behind a 500,000 HYPE stake (~$30M) locked 6 months and slashable by validator vote. Permissionless deployment is slated to ship to TESTNET first, then mainnet, with no firm date given at announcement. As of the announcement, the permissionless feature had not reached testnet — only a design existed.
- This event resolves YES if permissionless HIP-4 prediction market deployment (any third-party deployer able to deploy an outcome market) becomes live and usable on Hyperliquid's public TESTNET on or before 2026-08-18 23:59 UTC. This event resolves NO if that has not occurred by the deadline.
- 1. Specificity: YES requires that permissionless (third-party) deployment of a HIP-4 outcome market is functional on Hyperliquid testnet — a non-core party can deploy an outcome market on testnet.
- 2. Exclusion: Mainnet-only deployment, a mere blog/roadmap announcement, or core-team-only deployment does NOT count. Testnet functionality is required.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Hyperliquid official docs (hyperliquid.gitbook.io / hyperliquid.xyz) priority. Hyperliquid GitHub secondary. Official Hyperliquid governance/X announcements tertiary.
- 4. Timing: Must occur before 2026-08-18 23:59 UTC. Post-deadline resolves NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: For feature additions — YES requires both announcement AND implementation (live on testnet) before deadline. Announcement alone resolves NO. If implemented then removed before deadline — resolves YES based on first implementation date.