Will Charles Hoskinson's Cardano "political party" DRep hit these on-chain milestones by August 11, 2026?
13,122 Vol.in 28 days (Aug-11-2026 11:59:59 PM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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Casts on-chain vote
$4,920 Vol.
85.0%
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100M+ ADA voting power
$8,202 Vol.
35.0%
DescriptionCardano's governance is in open conflict: elected DReps have rejected founder-backed treasury proposals, including IOG's 32.9M ADA "Cardano Vision 2026" (86.72% No). He responded by pledging to register as a DRep and form a "political party" that votes NO on funding proposals unless proposers join its governance Discord. On July 10, 2026 he said it is "imminently" launching, but gave no date, name or DRep ID.
- Resolves YES (per outcome) if that milestone is met on Cardano mainnet on or before 2026-08-11 23:59:59 UTC (Etc/UTC). Resolves NO (per outcome) if not.
- 1. Specificity: "Hoskinson's DRep" = a registered DRep credential attributed to Hoskinson or his political party by Hoskinson or Input Output (IOG); party channels count only if publicly acknowledged by Hoskinson or IOG. "Casts a vote" = at least one vote (Yes/No/Abstain) recorded on-chain by such a DRep on any governance action; any one qualifying DRep suffices. "100M+ voting power" = one qualifying DRep shows at least 100,000,000 ADA of voting power, including its own self-delegated stake, at an epoch-boundary snapshot before the deadline.
- 2. Exclusion: Self-asserted DRep metadata alone does not establish attribution; it may only corroborate an attributed DRep ID. Announcements, Discord launches or delegation pledges do not count without the on-chain fact. Voting power is not summed across DReps; delegations not yet in an epoch snapshot do not count. Stake-pool delegation is not DRep voting power.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: Cardano GovTool (gov.tools) priority. Explorers adastat.net / cardanoscan.io secondary. Hoskinson/IOG statements tertiary, used only to attribute a DRep ID.
- 4. Timing: Must occur on or before 2026-08-11 23:59:59 UTC. Post-deadline resolves NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: YES requires announcement AND on-chain implementation before the deadline; announcement alone resolves NO. If a qualifying DRep registers or votes then retires before the deadline, resolution stands on the first on-chain occurrence.