Will BIP-110 trigger a Bitcoin chain split during its August 2026 mandatory signaling window?
36,656 Vol.in 28 days (Aug-18-2026 11:59:59 PM UTC)
DescriptionBIP-110 (the 'Reduced Data Temporary Soft Fork' by Dathon Ohm) caps arbitrary data in Bitcoin transactions and uses a modified BIP9 needing 55% miner signaling. Its mandatory signaling window (blocks 961,632–963,647, est. Aug 7–15, 2026) makes BIP-110-enforcing nodes reject any block not signaling bit 4. As of mid-July 2026 miner support is under 1% (mainly Ocean pool; F2Pool refused; Saylor and Adam Back rejected it), so if the 55% threshold is missed, enforcing nodes could follow a separate minority chaintip.
- Resolves YES if a distinct BIP-110-enforcing chain sustains at least 3 consecutive blocks that enforcing nodes accept as their best chain but which are NOT part of the main (non-enforcing) network's best chain, on or before 2026-08-18T23:59:59Z UTC.
- Resolves NO if no such divergent enforcing chaintip of >=3 blocks is observed by the deadline (including if BIP-110 reaches 55% and locks in, or dies from lack of hashrate).
- 1. Specificity: YES needs a coherent divergent chaintip of >=3 consecutive blocks followed by enforcing nodes, not on the main network's best chain (per forkmonitor.info). Because BIP-110 is a soft fork, main nodes treat this chain as stale/lower-work, not invalid; divergence is one-directional.
- 2. Exclusion: Brief 1-2 block stale/orphan events, blocks summed across separate stale events, testnet/signet activity, and mere fork announcements do NOT count. 55% lock-in with no divergent chain resolves NO.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: forkmonitor.info priority. mempool.space secondary. coin.dance tertiary.
- 4. Timing: The qualifying >=3-block divergent chaintip must be observed on or before 2026-08-18T23:59:59Z UTC. Post-deadline resolves NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: Resolves on an observed on-chain event; if a qualifying chaintip appears then is abandoned before the deadline, it resolves YES based on first observation.