Will any satellite debris be reported to have landed in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, the White House, or Times Square in New York
6,340,035 Vol.11 months ago (Aug-01-2025 03:59:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
Show chart
Another Location on Earth
$1,329,069 Vol.
72.5%
Show chart
The White House Lawn (including The White House)
$838,451 Vol.
12.3%
Show chart
Las Vegas + Clark County, Nevada
$988,623 Vol.
7.0%
Show chart
No Debris is reported falling to Earth
$1,353,749 Vol.
4.3%
Show chart
Time Square New York City (including the five boroughs)
$888,607 Vol.
4.0%
Show chart
Los Angeles + five counties
$941,535 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionWhere will the first piece of space junk crash-land in one of America’s most iconic spots? Context: The satellite industry has grown rapidly, with over 12,000 satellites in orbit as of 2025, driven by companies like SpaceX (Starlink) and Amazon (Project Kuiper). Most satellites are designed to burn up in the atmosphere or land in uninhabited areas like oceans during controlled reentries. However, rare incidents of debris reaching populated areas have occurred, such as a 2.5 kg piece of SpaceX Starlink debris found in Saskatchewan, Canada, in August 2024, and Falcon-9 fragments impacting a village in Poland in February 2025. Previous Incident from CNN "A piece of garbage jettisoned from the International Space Station unexpectedly survived a fiery reentry from orbit last month and pierced the roof of a home in Florida, according to NASA. When the federal agency disposed of a slab of spaceborne refuse weighing about 5,800 pounds (2,630 kilograms), it expected the trash to disintegrate as it plunged into Earth’s atmosphere on March 8. But a small piece of the cargo roughly the size of a smartphone survived — and it crashed into a home in Naples, Florida, last month, NASA confirmed in an April 15" This Event Outcome will Settle to "Yes" if a credible reporting source confirms that satellite debris landed in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, the White House, or Times Square by the Event Date Close. If no such report is made, it settles to "No". The primary source will be reports from space agencies or reputable news outlets.