SEC 'Regulation Crypto': Does the Safe-Harbor Proposal Actually Drop in July?
18,408 Vol.in 17 days (Aug-01-2026 03:59:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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OIRA clearance
$9,239 Vol.
45.0%
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SEC issues proposal
$9,169 Vol.
42.0%
DescriptionChair Paul Atkins's 2026 SEC agenda (Jul 7) lists "Crypto Assets" (RIN 3235-AN38) at Proposed Rule Stage with an NPRM target of 07/2026 — his first crypto rulemaking, bundling a startup exemption, a raise up to $75M, a token safe harbor, and a DeFi "innovation exemption." It has sat at White House OIRA since March 20, 2026 (an April target already slipped); Atkins says it is due "shortly." Deadline for both markets: 2026-07-31 23:59:59 ET (2026-08-01 03:59 UTC).
- OIRA clearance resolves YES if reginfo.gov records review of RIN 3235-AN38 (or a successor RIN for the same package) as concluded under ANY disposition — consistent with/without change, returned to agency, withdrawn, or exempt — with a conclusion date on or before the deadline; checked 2026-08-07 (posting lag irrelevant). If the RIN vanishes with no recorded conclusion, resolves NO.
- SEC issues proposal resolves YES if the SEC publicly issues the proposal by the deadline via an SEC press release, the proposing release posted on sec.gov, adoption at a noticed open meeting, or Federal Register NPRM publication.
- 1. Specificity: only the "Regulation Crypto" token exemption/safe-harbor rulemaking counts. A proposal suffices; no final rule needed.
- 2. Exclusion: speeches, testimony, staff statements, no-action letters, exemptive orders, leaked drafts and "imminent" press reports do NOT count. The other July-dated SEC crypto rulemakings (broker-dealer custody; market structure) do NOT count. A non-public seriatim vote does NOT count unless the proposal is publicly issued by the deadline.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: sec.gov primary. reginfo.gov secondary. federalregister.gov tertiary.
- 4. Timing: post-deadline resolves NO. Shutdown, Atkins's exit, RIN splits, or agenda removal do not extend it.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: YES requires the official act, not an announcement of intent. If issued then withdrawn before the deadline, resolves YES on first issuance. If "SEC issues proposal" is YES, "OIRA clearance" is YES.